The US continues its course toward a trade war

The US government is ramping up economic pressure on countries that maintain cooperation with Russia’s energy sector. President Donald Trump has announced the administration’s readiness to impose higher tariffs on imports from nations that refuse to halt purchases of Russian oil and gas. Especially tough measures are being prepared against China and India. According to White House officials, if energy contracts are not revised within the next 10–12 days, tariffs of up to 100% could be applied to specific categories of imported goods.

What exactly is being discussed

While the final list of targeted countries and goods has not yet been made public, sources within the US administration indicate the restrictions will be aimed at countries that continue fueling demand for Russian energy exports. The main threats are directed at:

• Chinese and Indian oil refiners;
• Third countries re-exporting Russian oil products;
• Companies working with Russian state-owned energy firms;
• Imports from Brazil and Middle Eastern nations cooperating with Russian suppliers.

The Trump administration is also considering additional financial restrictions and the freezing of contracts with organizations that, according to US authorities, help bypass sanctions.

Reactions from countries and markets

The US has already announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from India, effective August 1. India’s prime minister and key economic analysts view this step as a complication of trade talks. Despite the pressure, India has emphasized its continued involvement in dialogue and hopes for a future trade agreement. The country’s efforts to counter Trump’s pressure have become crucial for safeguarding its export sectors, especially textiles and jewelry.

China responded firmly. An official spokesperson clearly stated that purchasing Russian oil is a matter of energy independence and national sovereignty, and that the US has no right to dictate terms. Chinese authorities also underscored plans to support companies that may fall under sanctions through tax relief and incentives.

Russia has not yet made an official response, but analysts suggest that such threats could destabilize oil markets in the short term and disrupt imports in the targeted countries. For Russia, these threats are more of a political lever than an immediate economic blow. If trade partners hold firm, the US may act—but reduced oil exports could eventually shift markets and profits in favor of Russian companies operating in rubles.

Possible consequences and the US strategy

The current strategy of the US administration is not aimed at an immediate trade blockade, but rather at applying sustained political and economic pressure. It is a continuation of efforts to limit Russia’s energy revenues by suppressing global demand for its key export. Many experts believe that such tariffs could trigger:

• An increase in global oil and energy prices;
• Redistribution of logistics and supply chains;
• Political polarization within the G20;
• Greater use of alternative currency settlements (in yuan, dirham, etc.).

Markets reacted quickly: oil prices rose on fears of tighter supply, and the ruble fell. However, the resulting increase in ruble-denominated revenue could benefit Russian oil companies. Investors have shown greater interest in short-term hedge instruments and currency-based assets.

What comes next

If the tariffs are indeed implemented, it would mark one of the most aggressive moves in US trade policy in recent years. Analysts note that the decision may place short-term pressure on Russia, but in the long run, it could lead to a reshaping of global energy markets. In the coming weeks, expect to see:

• Reactions from the EU and Japan;
• Official responses from Beijing and New Delhi;
• Adjustments to oil deliveries via «gray routes»;
• A rise in geopolitical tension across Asia and the Middle East.

The US is clearly betting on trade pressure to curb Russia’s export revenues. Introducing tariffs of up to 100% could drastically shift the rules of the game in the global energy market—especially if allies follow suit. But for now, it’s more of a psychological standoff: an ultimatum that could lead either to new negotiations or to a real economic strike. If the situation remains unchanged over the next 10–12 days, the world may witness another round of trade escalation—one with consequences far beyond the energy sector.