OPEC says new investments in oil and gas are essential

The global energy system is not ready for a sharp break from hydrocarbons — that was the message from OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais during his speech at the Russian Energy Week in Moscow. According to him, oil will continue to hold around 30% of the world’s energy mix by 2050, and without large-scale investment in extraction, transportation, and processing, the energy system could face shortages within the next few years. His statement signaled to the industry that talk of saying «goodbye» to oil is still premature.

OPEC calls for «energy realism»

Al Ghais emphasized that, unlike the forecasts of Western agencies predicting a peak in oil demand by the end of this decade, OPEC sees the transition period as a longer and more complex process. He noted that energy consumption will keep growing due to population increase, urbanization, and industrial expansion — meaning traditional sources will continue to play a key role.

He added that every attempt to «speed up» the energy transition leads to imbalance — investments in production decline faster than alternatives can mature. This creates a risk of price spikes and supply gaps. According to Al Ghais, over the next 25 years the main challenge for the global economy will be finding a balance between realism and environmental goals.

To avoid instability, OPEC is calling for strategic investments in infrastructure, exploration of new fields, and modernization of existing assets. The organization also stresses that hydrocarbons will coexist with renewable energy rather than be replaced by it.

Market reacts with caution

Following Al Ghais’s speech, oil prices showed a modest uptick — traders saw his words as confirmation of steady long-term demand. Yet analysts point out that the market remains under pressure: OPEC+ countries continue to raise output, while independent producers, especially in the United States and Brazil, are already increasing exports.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that by 2026 oil supply could exceed demand by 3–4 million barrels per day. This means that uncontrolled investment could trigger another wave of oversupply and price volatility. Still, Al Ghais insists that cutting investment would be even more dangerous, as it could lead to shortages in the medium term.

Experts also remind that much of the global oil and gas infrastructure is becoming outdated — without renewal it will struggle to ensure stable deliveries even amid moderate demand growth. In this light, OPEC’s remarks sound less like an industry defense and more like a warning about structural risks.

What analysts and investors are watching

Today’s oil market stands at a crossroads: some see the future in accelerating the shift to renewables, while others expect a hybrid model where oil and gas remain the backbone of the global economy. To assess long-term trends, experts highlight several key areas to monitor:

• adjustment of production quotas within OPEC+ and responses to changing demand;
• levels of strategic oil reserves and consumption dynamics in China and India;
• pace of technological investment — from carbon capture to hydrogen projects;
• strategies of major energy corporations combining extraction with green initiatives;
• EU and US policies on hydrocarbon imports and emission standards.

These factors directly influence price forecasts and investment strategies. It is especially important to track how the balance between supply and demand adjusts amid a gradual, but uneven, energy transition. OPEC’s statement has become something of a manifesto for «energy realism.» The organization signals that a full-scale retreat from oil in the coming decades is unrealistic — the world economy remains deeply dependent on hydrocarbon infrastructure. At the same time, the energy transition is inevitable, and the task for producing countries is not to resist change but to adapt through investment and innovation.