Most Grains, Including Corn, are Offering Decent Fundamentals, but the Biggest Driver is Still USD’s Moderation

Most grains look moderately advancing, but there is no apparent reason to be extra bullish since even though most fundamentals remain in favor of slight deficits, the main reason of prices’ uptrend is the value of the U.S. dollar. Thus, according to the recent USDA survey, corn export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year totaled 1.22 million tons in the week ended Oct. 3. That was in the middle of the respective trading ranges but down from the previous week and well above the same week last year. One bulk order bought 371,200 tons of corn, with 329,700 tons sold to Mexico and another 248,900 tons to Colombia.

Meanwhile, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders, U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 1.988 billion bushels, down 69 mbu (million bushels) from last month, largely due to smaller 23/24 CY (crop year) stocks. The global surplus is also expected to drop by 1.1 million tons to 307.3 million tons on Friday, October 11.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina's corn harvest are as high as 18.6% as of Oct. 9. plantings, up from the same period last year but below average.